You're Not as Confident as You Think

A 10-question test that shows you exactly how overconfident you really are. Takes about five minutes. The number you get back will change how you read every deadline from now on.

In the episode I made a claim: when someone tells you they are 80% confident, they are usually wrong. Not lying, just uncalibrated. Most people have never practiced estimating, so their 80% is really more like 60%, sometimes worse.

That is easy to nod along to. It is much harder to believe about yourself. So here is the test. Ten questions, none of which you will know the exact answer to. For each one you give a range you are 90% sure contains the truth. If you are actually calibrated, you will get about 9 of 10 right. Most people get 4, 5, maybe 6.

Enter your email and I will send you the test. Then take that number and look at your project plan again.